The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
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The talks came a day after the two armies began a limited disengagement in a few areas in Galwan Valley and Hot Spring in a demonstration of their intent to end the row peacefully.
Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Wednesday refused to speculate on whether the G20 foreign ministers' meeting would be able to come out with a joint communique against the backdrop of widening differences between the West and Russia on the Ukraine conflict.
'The reason being we cannot let premiums go beyond a certain point.'
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
The silver lining for India's presidency is likely to be the support by almost all G20 countries to its proposal to include the African Union as a permanent member of the bloc that has emerged as perhaps the most influential multilateral forum after the United Nations.
The meeting will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro, according to the MEA.
'The virus of trust deficit seems to be taking a toll of the friendship built over the years by succeeding leaderships of the two countries,' notes Rup Narayan Das.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
The BRICS summit made clear that China's support for Pakistan is unwavering. China will continue to pressure India to ease tensions with Pakistan and resolve the Kashmir dispute.
Amid China's economic slowdown, the country's economic challenges may increase manifold and its economy may be hit harder in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
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'Building on the potential for closer ties is the changing narrative in each country about the other. The Chinese narrative on India has become significantly more positive over the past few years,' says Walter Andersen and Zhong Zhenming.
'Clearly, the depositors of cooperative banks need the maximum protection.'
'...to bring the Global South and others to the negotiating table on the basis of Gandhi's non-violence so that we can leave a safer world for our children.'
'Chasing sectors which have reported strongest earnings is not always the right strategy for outperformance.'
'India-China economic ties are likely to take a hit in the wake of the new situation, but that also provides India with a new opportunity to strengthen its manufacturing base,' points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
The RBI refuses to classify a cryptocurrency as an asset since it doesn't have future cash flow and its value is always fluctuating because of speculation. There is also no consumer protection, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay, and hence the e-rupee trial run.
BRICS countries, including India, on Thursday voiced concern over the "fragile recovery" of global growth and the potential spillover effects from the "unconventional monetary policies" of the developed countries.
Borrowing from BRICS bank will help India avoid other kinds of politics emanating from the West. Overall, the BRICS institutions will necessarily adopt alternative ways of doing things based on their own cultural and socio economic needs, says M K Venu.
The Chinese central bank on Monday warned the country could face huge uncertainties in the wake of slow world recovery process and the unstable economic and financial situation in Europe.
China has launched a host of reforms to halt the slow down of the economy, which is hovering around seven per cent with forecasts that it would dip down further.
Noted economist Arvind Panagariya says India is an emerging power. With liberalisation, Indian entrepreneurs have emerged and they are top class.
The five-nation grouping BRICS on Tuesday resolved to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including the cross-border movement of terrorists, and vowed to step up joint efforts in building support for an India-backed global framework to effectively deal with the menace.
Several factors seem to have corrected in India in the past six months, says the president of New Development Bank.
India's dream to be in the forefront of international politics has come true. India has placed itself firmly as a major player in the shaping of a new world order, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Premier Li Keqiang highlighted his government's performance in the last one year and the challenges ahead in various fields. Compared to other reports by his predecessors, Li spoke more frankly about the mounting challenges faced by the country. Srikanth Kondapalli on the two recent Chinese parliament sessions.
'India needs to adopt a more proactive policy of triggering exports to China.'
'If there is any reason to change my holding in Adani group stocks, the Hindenburg report on the group is not the one.'
The stand by China spelt out by its foreign ministry insisting that it takes the 1959 line on perception of the LAC amid a nearly five-month-long border standoff in eastern Ladakh triggered a strong reaction from India.
A whitepaper released by the Chinese government gave a lengthy explanation to refute the allegations of cover up and delay by Beijing on reporting the COVID-19 outbreak last year in Wuhan. United States President Donald Trump and leaders of several countries have accused China of not being transparent in reporting the deadly disease, leading to huge human casualties and economic crisis across the world.
The focus of the deliberations was on finalising modalities for disengagement of troops in eastern Ladakh.
Experts say while the increasing demand for a ban on Chinese goods might make for good optics, the reality is that India is still heavily dependent on that country in a wide range of industries like electronics, mobile devices, auto, pharma, telecom equipment, and fertilisers.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
China on Thursday said it will not object to the nomination of US deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz as the new President of the World Bank
The Indian side forcefully pressed for early resolution of the standoff and particularly insisted on expeditious disengagement in Hot Springs and Gogra, a source said.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
Arvind Panagariya speaks about climate change, globalisation and India's economy.
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